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Worldwide industrial production in first three-quarters of 2017

Partly stagnating, partly growing total tendency of worldwide industrial production in 2017

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by three reports. This report investigated the current situation of the worldwide industrial production and its outlook. Two further reports deal with the structural changes in the course of the industrial production and the crisis overcoming.

Update December 20th, 2017 – The background for the worldwide industrial production in the first three-quarters of 2017 provide the following facts and trends:

  • The worldwide industrial production is analyzed for groups of countries that absorb 80% of the machine export from Germany. Those are the three groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey).

  • Our reports for all three country groups identify those trends based on periods ranging from fifteen to thirty-five years that are determining today. So five structural changes coin the current situation of the worldwide industrial production today.

  • These five structural changes are in keywords: 1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000, 2. deeper crises, 3. longer crisis overcoming, 4. galloping national indebtedness and 5. Instead of a general upward business trend as it is common after a crisis, nonuniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.

Growth and stagnation of industrial production in the industrialized countries still closely connected

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


In the first two quarters of 2017 its industrial production indicates a slight growth that flattens in third quarter.

  • 2015 and 2016 industrial production in the USA dropped, increased slightly again in 2017 and lies now on the level of 2014.

  • In Germany industrial production has been growing since 2014.

  • Industrial production in the European Union also continues its growth since 2015, however, being still below pre-crisis level.

  • In Japan industrial production reached a new high for the first time in seven years that is, however, still below its pre-crisis level.
Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2017.

Summarized, the course of industrial production in the industrialized countries is characherized by two features:

  • Growth in each of the four countries, lastly stagnation, however.

  • The growth of the EU and Japan happens still below the pre-crisis level even nine years after the crisis' outbreak. The US lies on the level of 2014 in third quarter.

BRIC countries showing likewise partly stagnating, partly growing total tendency in 2017

Symbol picture BRIC countries.

The BRIC countries, which absorb 15% of the machine exports from Germany, offer likewise the picture of a mixed total tendency in 2017 compounded of stagnation and growth.

 

  • China's industrial production continues its growth, although somewhat muted in the last two quarters.

  • India’s industrial production has been growing since 2014, in the first quarter 2017 stagnating, in the second one growing.

  • Russia’s industrial production dropped slightly in 2015 and keeps on growing since then. Although industrial production decreases in third quarter.

  • Brazil's industrial production showed an open crisis since 2014. The fall of industrial production came to an end in 2017 so far.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2017.

So the BRIC countries confirm and expand the partly stagnating, partly growing total tendency of the worldwide industrial production for 2017.

MIST countries fitting into worldwide partly growing, partly stagnating total tendency

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export showing a similar complete picture.

  • In Turkey industrial production is growing continously.

  • Mexico's industrial production is keeping on to stagnate as it does basically industrial production of South Korea likewise.

  • Solely Indonesia's industrial production is growing dynamically.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2017.

So also the MIST countries are inclosed in the total tendency of the worldwide industrial production.

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