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Trends in production and sales of German machinery industry 2008 - 2023

The five trend stages in production and sales of the German machinery industry from 2008 to 2023

The analysis of production and sales of the German machinery industry during the fifteen years from 2008, the year of the breakout of the last world economic crisis, up to 2023 identifies five trends.

Update February 9th, 2024; first published August 27th, 2012 – The trend of production of the German machinery industry climbed out of the crisis low at 101.4 index points in mid-2012. However, the pre-crisis level of 106.4 index points from September 2008 could not be reached or even exceeded.


The trend is determined by the average of the monthly production indices of the last twelve months, marked as a dotted line in the diagram. The red oscillating line indicates the monthly production indices.

Trend of produktion exceeds pre-crisis level after ten years

After the crisis low was overcome, a stagnation phase took place for five years, which ended in July 2017 with 102.0 index points. It was followed by a period of growth at a rate of 3.9% p.a. However, this growth lasted only 15 months until October 2018.


In October 2018, the production trend exceeded the pre-crisis level of 2008 (106.4 index points) at 107.1 index points for the first time.


So it took ten years to exceed the pre-crisis level in the annual trend. Although monthly production peaks at the end of each year had exceeded the pre-crisis level, they then fell back again and again.

Production machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2023.

The exceeding of the pre-crisis level in October 2018 also initiated a trend reversal. For two years until February 2021, production declines in trend at minus 7.7% per year.


From February 2021 to December 2023, production grows again at 2.7% per year. However, in 2023 the growth trend of production declined significantly because during the stage up to 2022 the production trend stood still at 4.9% p.a.

The five trend stages of sales from 2008 to 2023

The sales trend left the crisis low behind in mid-2012 without being able to exceed the pre-crisis level.


This was followed by a two-year stagnation phase, which finally led to a growth phase. This growth phase lasted for four and a half years from mid-2014 to early 2019 and achieved a growth rate of 2.9% per year.


It was only in this growth phase that the pre-crisis level was surpassed - five years after the onset of the crisis!

Sales of machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2023.

 

But in May 2019, the growth trend turned into a downward trend, which lasted until February 2021 and caused the sales trend to decline by 9.0% per year.


From February 2021 until the end of 2023, the sales trend pointed upwards again with a high growth rate of 10.0% per year. This development resulted in new highs for the sales trend in 2022 and 2023 since the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008/09.

Development of production and sales was not unexpected

At the beginning of 2019 the Quest Trend Magazine stated for the industrial production in Germany:

  • “It is likely that the growth trend in 2019 will turn into stagnation, which could turn into a crisis. The reason for this follows initially from the global economy, which is characterized by a mixture of growth, stagnation and decline. This mix replaced a general economic upturn that used to follow a crisis. This situation is fragile and the factors for maintaining it are becoming weaker and weaker. These include the galloping national debt, mounting ever higher risks to continue. This includes industrial production in China, whose growth rates are slowing. This includes the aggressive US policy under Trump and the formation of a new, bipolar power structure in the world with the two major poles, the USA and China. All three factors are narrowing the global economy."  


This assessment was confirmed and even negatively exceeded in 2019/20. This shows the benefit of a long-term analysis with trends that are placed in the economic cycle.