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EU industrial production and German machine exports to the EU

The ranking of the ten most attractive EU countries for machine exports from Germany

The EU countries account for 50% of all machine exports from Germany (2019). Of these, ten EU countries alone account for over 81% of machine exports from Germany to the EU. A country's industrial production is one of the main determinants of machine exports and the use of machines. Therefore, this report compares the development of German machine exports to the ten EU countries with the development of industrial production in these countries. Another report examines the most important worldwide regions of the German machine export to what extent industrial production and machine exports are synchronized there.

March 27th, 2020 - The diagram for each of the ten EU countries compares changes in machinery exports from Germany with changes in industrial production in the country concerned. It compares changes, developments of the two variables in the period from 2008 to 2019, but not their absolute volumes.


Differences in the development of both variables are made directly visible as both variables refer to the pre-crisis year 2008 as a common starting point and are set to 100. This required a conversion of the official indices although without changing their context.

EU industrial production in 2017 by almost 1%, German machinery exports by almost 15% above 2008 level

Industrial production in the EU exceeded its pre-crisis level of 2008 by a wafer-thin 0.8% in 2019. Exports of machinery from Germany to the EU in 2019 were 15% higher than in 2008.

Industrial production of the EU and the machine exports from Germany to the EU from 2008 to 2017.

The diagram shows the comparatively deep fall in machine exports in the crisis year 2009. It was not until 2014, five years later, that a dynamic increase in machine exports started to exceed the pre-crisis level of 2008, which finally happened with 100.3 index points, i.e. by 0.3%, in 2016.


Let us now take a look at the ten most export-intensive EU countries and then treat each of them in the order presented.

The ten most important EU countries for machine exports from Germany to the EU

These ten EU countries accounted for 80.6% of machinery exports from Germany to the EU (2019). In the order of the export quotas of machines from Germany in 2019, the countries concerned are
   

  • France (14%), Great Britain (9%), Italy (9%), Austria (9%), Netherlands (9%), Poland (8%), Czech Republic (6%), Spain (6%), Belgium (5%) and Hungary (5%).


A separate report examines the development of these export quotas and compares it with the total machine export from Germany from 2008 to 2019.

The ranking of the ten EU countries according to their attractiveness for machine exports from Germany

The average growth rate of machinery exports from Germany to the EU in 2019 is 14.6% compared to 2008. The ranking of the attractiveness of the ten EU countries is determined by their deviations from this average value.


According to this scale, three countries will show above-average growth rates of machinery exports from Germany in 2019:

 

  • Poland
  • Czech Republic
  • Netherlands.


The export quota for German machines to these three countries totals 23%, which is almost a quarter of the 81% export quota to all ten EU countries.


Five EU countries show below-average growth rates for machines from Germany:    

 

  • Austria
  • France
  • Belgium
  • Great Britain
  • Italy.


The export quota for German machines to these five countries is 46%, which is almost half of the 81% export quota to all ten EU countries.


In 2019, two countries show falling machinery exports from Germany compared to 2008:   

 

  • Hungary
  • Spain.


The export quota for German machines to these two countries is 11%. The ten EU countries are treated in this order.

Poland's industrial production by 55% in 2019, machine exports by 52% above 2008 level

Poland and the Czech Republic increased their industrial production by far the most among the ten EU countries surveyed. At 55%, Poland's industrial production is well above average compared to its pre-crisis level of 2008.

Industrial production of Poland and the machine exports from Germany to Poland from 2008 to 2019.

Exports of machinery from Germany developed in line with this trend in Polish industrial production. At 52%, they were also well above the pre-crisis level of 2008.


This outstanding development of industrial production and German machine exports together with an export ratio of 8%, which ranks sixth among the ten EU countries with the highest export intensity, qualifies Poland as the most attractive export market for machines from Germany within the ten EU countries.

Czech Republic's industrial production by 22%, machine exports by 45% above pre-crisis levels

Czech Republic's industrial production developed above average and exceeded the pre-crisis level of 2008 by 22%.

Industrial production of the Czech Republic and the machine exports from Germany to Czech Republic from 2008 to 2019.

Machine exports from Germany topped this development by increasing twice as fast as industrial production and surpassing the 2008 level by 45%.


The machines from Germany to the Czech Republic show an export quota of 6%. Together with the clearly above-average development of industrial production and machine exports, the Czech Republic has become the second most attractive EU market for machines from Germany after Poland.

Netherlands' industrial production by 5% below, machine exports by 28% above pre-crisis 2008 levels

Industrial production in the Netherlands was 5% below the level of 2008 and thus showed a below-average development. In 2010 and 2013, industrial production remained only just below its pre-crisis level, but could not exceed it.

Industrial production of the Netherlands and the machine exports from Germany to the Netherlands from 2008 to 2019.

In contrast to sinking industrial production, machine exports from Germany developed significantly above average by 28%. Together with an export quota of 9% for machines from Germany, the Netherlands is the third most attractive export country among the tehn EU countries.

Austria's industrial production by 27%, machine exports by 13% above 2008 level

Austria's industrial production grew significantly faster than the EU average at 27% since 2008.

Industrial production of Austria and the machine exports from Germany to Austria from 2008 to 2019.

Machine exports from Germany to Austria couldn't accompanied this development in industrial production in an above-average manner. They exceeded their 2008 level by below average 13%.


With an export quota of 9%, Austria ranks fourth in the EU for machines from Germany. The combination of the above-average development of industrial production and slightly below average machine exports, combined with the fourth highest export ratio, puts Austria in fourth place among the most attractive export markets for German machines.

French industrial production in 2019 by 6% below, machine exports by 12% above 2008 level

Within the EU, France is with 14% the export country number one for machines from Germany and has maintained this position unchallenged since 2008.


Industrial production in France was still 6% below its pre-crisis level in 2019, while industrial production throughout the EU could slightly exceed their 2008 level by 0.8%.

Industrial production of France and the machine exports from Germany to France from 2008 to 2019.

Machine exports from Germany to France also developed below average with an increase of 12%. Both below average deviations together with the highest export ratio put France in fifth place among the most attractive export countries within the ten EU countries.

Belgium's industrial production by 14%, machine exports by 10% above 2008 level

Belgium's industrial production, with 14% above 2008 levels, was well above the EU average in 2017.

Industrial production of Belgium and the machine exports from Germany to Belgium from 2008 to 2019.

Machine exports from Germany were lagging behind this above-average development of industrial production although they exceed their 2008 level by 10%.


The clearly above-average development in industrial production with below average machine exports makes Belgium the sixth most attractive export market for machines from Germany, with a relatively low export ratio of 5% (ninth place).

UK industrial production by 5% below, German machinery exports by 5% above 2008 level

Industrial production in the UK has been in a permanent crisis since 2000, as a report shows. In 2017 it was again be 5% below its 2008 level and thus below the EU average.


The UK leads the following six EU countries with a negative indicator. This is the case, as mentioned, if the industrial production of the country concerned was below the EU average in 2017 compared to 2008 or if machine exports from Germany to this country in 2017 to 2008 were below the EU average or because both factors occurred together.

Industrial production of Great Britain and the machine exports from Germany to Great Britain from 2008 to 2019.

Like industrial production, machine exports from Germany to the UK also developed with an increase of 5% below average as the EU average is 7%.


With the second highest export ratio of over 10% for machines from Germany, Great Britain ranges still relatively favorable among the countries with a negative ratio.

Italy's industrial production by 15% below, machine exports by 7% above 2008 level

Italy, together with Spain, is at the bottom of industrial production within the ten EU countries. In 2019 Italy's industrial production was still 15% below pre-crisis level, while industrial production in the EU as a whole was slightly above this level.

Industrial production of Italy and the machine exports from Germany to Italy from 2008 to 2019.

Exports of machines from Germany exceeded their 2008 level by 7%. Although this development in machine exports is below average, it is again "above average" in view of the sharp decline in Italian industrial production.


With an export share of 9% of machines from Germany, Italy is the third most export-intensive export partner within the EU. It accomplishes the ranking of the countries with below average growth of machines exports from Germany on rank 8.

Hungary's industrial production by 28% above, machine exports by 2% below 2008 level

In 2019 Hungary's industrial production was by 28% above the 2008 level and also above the EU average of +0.8%.

Industrial production of Hungary and the machine exports from Germany to Hungary from 2008 to 2019.

The exports of machines from Germany were unable to take advantage of the steep rise in Hungarian industrial production to achieve an above-average growth. Machine exports from Germany to Hungary almost halved during the global economic crisis, while industrial production fell by 18%. With the exception of 2016, German machinery exports to Hungary rose since 2010.


However, since 2018 machine exports from Germany to Hungary have been stagnating This development, together with the relatively small export ratio of 5%, puts Hungary in nineth place of the ten EU countries.

Spain's industrial production by 15%, machine exports by 10% below 2008 level

Spain's industrial production, like that of Italy, was below the pre-crisis level of 2008 by 15% and thus well below the EU average.

Industrial production of Spain and the machine exports from Germany to Spain from 2008 to 2019.

However, unlike Italy, machine exports from Germany to Spain did not increase as industrial production declined. Rather, their development was still lagging behind that of industrial production and closed 2019 with a minus of 10% compared to 2008 although less weak than industrrial production with minus 15.%.


Together with a relatively low export ratio of 6%, Spain ranks on the last position of the ten countries. This makes Spain the least attractive EU country for machinery exports from Germany in 2019.

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