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Export markets of the German machinery industry until 2019 Q2

Machine export shares to the EU and the US lower but higher to BRIC and other countries

Symbol picture trade war

This report completes the analysis of the structure of machine exports from Germany “The shift back in the export markets has been accomplished since 2017”. Against this backdrop this analysis highlights the current quarterly development of the worldwide machine exports from Germany.

Update August 26th, 2019 - In the wake of the world economic crisis export markets of the German machinery industry turned particularly to China and also to the other developing countries while export shares to the former favored countries EU and the US clearly dropped.

Since 2014 export markets have been shifting back favoring those export countries that had prevailed before the world economic crisis: the EU and the USA. This shift back accomplished in 2017 and determined export structure in 2018.


This development had still deepened in first quarter 2019. The export share of machines from Germany to the EU reached 51%, before the crisis the share was 52%. And the machine exports to the BRIC countries dropped to 15%, the same level as ahead of the crisis.

Export shares of German machines to EU, BRIC, MIST countries and the US and Japan from 2008 to 2019.

The second quarter developed contrary to the first quarter. The export share to the EU and the USA fell, while the export share to the BRIC countries and countries with a lower export share rose.

Lead of machine exports to the USA over China shortens by two thirds

Each of the three countries China, USA and Russia take 5% or more of the machine exports from Germany. So these countries are outside the EU the most important export markets.

 

Since 2015 the export share for machines to the USA has been becoming higher than that to China. In the first quarter 2019 the gap between the two export shares reached its highest level since 2008 with 1.7 percentage points.


In the second quarter this gap plunged by almost two third to 0.6 percentage points.


Machine exports to Russia increased in the wake of the world economic crisis to over 5% in 2012. In the first quarter they dropped to their lowest level since 2008 with 2.6%. In the second quarter the export share has climbed to the highest level since 2015 with 3.2%.

Export shares of German machines to China, Russia, the US from 2008 to 2019.

Machine exports to smaller export countries mainly slightly higher

Each of the MIST countries Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey take less than 5% of the machine exports from Germany. That is also true for Brazil and India belonging to the BRIC countries. Finally a small portion of machine exports from Germany is taken by Japan.

Export shares of German machines to Turkey, Brazil, Japan, India from 2008 to 2019.

The exports to these seven countries with export shares of each below 5% had summed up to altogether 9.7% in 2018. This export share dropped to 9.4% in first quarter 2019. In the second quarter this value rose slightly to 9.5%.

Export shares in the second quarter point in the direction of the last global economic crisis

Export shares to the EU and the USA lower, higher to BRIC and other countries - this also occurred during the global economic crisis of 2008/2009. It remains to be seen whether this shift in export shares is already a reaction to the narrowing markets of the industrialized countries and a turnaround to the countries with stronger growth.

Machine exports from Germany are often lagging behind the export countries' industrial production

A separate report shows that machine exports from Germany are often lagging behind the industrial production of the related export countries.

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