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Export of machines from Germany to China 2008 - 2017

Exports of the German machinery industry are lagging behind China's growth since 2012

Up to 2014 China had become the most important export market for machines from Germany outside the EU, having substituted the USA in 2009. How have machinery industry's exports responded to China's growth?

China's industrial production has been growing with changing growth rates

May 2nd, 2018 - China's industrial production since 2008 is analyzed by a separate report. It showed rising growth rates from 2008 to 2011 which softened by 2015. Since 2016 growth rates have again been rising.


It is to consider that the growth rates are related to an ever larger absolute basis. Regardless whether growth rates are changing, under the line the fact remains of a continuous growing industrial production in China.

The exports of the German machinery industry to China and China's industrial production from 2008 to 2017.

Despite continuous growth of industrial production, export shares of German machines declining

With the dynamically increasing industrial production machine exports from Germany to China steeply stepped up (red line). The export quota nearly doubled from 6.6% (2008) to 11.5% (2011). These increasing machine exports worked as an important ease during the world economic crisis 2008/2009 avoiding even stronger declines of machine production.

 

At this time China substituted the USA as the most important export market outside the EU.

 

However, after machine exports peaked with 11.5% in 2011 they were growing clearly slower than the growth rates of industrial production in China would suggest. Because China's industrial production grew in the years from 2011 to 2017 from 113.9 to 179.9 index points, while the export shares of machines from Germany declined from their peak of 11.5% (2011) to 9.7% (2017).

 

Finally in 2015 the US have again become the most important export market for machines from Germany outside EU, replacing China from first rank.


So it is not that much about growth in China as it is about the mechanical engineering industry itself why machine exports are using the potential of a growing industrial production since 2012 to a relatively lesser extent.

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