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Automobile production in Germany 2008 - 2019 May

Trend changing from growth to decline in production and sales in the automotive industry

This report deals mainly with monthly changes of production and sales of the automobile industry in Germany based on official production statistics. A separate trend report publishes the trends in production and sales since the beginning of the world economy crisis in 2008 to 2018.

Update July 17th, 2019 - Automobile production in Germany has been establishing a slight growth trend as it can be seen from the dashed line's course in the diagram. This line represents a moving yearly average of the monthly production numbers. The trend indicates a growth of the automobile production by 0.8% per year from January 2014 to May 2019.

In July 2018, this trend had reached 107.1 index points, its highest level since 2008. Since then, however, the trend has been pointing downwards.

Automobile production in Germany from 2008 up to 2019.

The respective peak values of production indices have been lower and lower since 2018, while production declines have accumulated. As a result, production trend line tended downwards - a shift from growth to decline has set in.

This development is also unusual because, with one exception, the trend in production and sales in the automotive industry in the second half of the year has been higher than in the first since the global economic crisis. In the global economic crisis itself, the opposite was true, with the second half of the year weaker than the first. This is now the case. And the seasonal drop in production to 76.7 index points in December 2018 was the worst since the global economic crisis.

Trend in sales turning from growth to decline as well

Since the beginning of 2014, turnover has been a growth trend (dotted line in the diagram). This growth trend is 2.8% per year from the beginning of 2014 to May 2019, i.e. more than threefold as high as the growth trend in car production.

Sales of German automobile industry in Germany from 2008 to 2019.

This trend had also reached its highest level since 2008 with 105.1 index points in July 2018, and here too the trend has been downwards since then. With one exception, this was otherwise only the case during the global economic crisis itself. 

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