EU industrial production and German machine exports to the EU
The ranking of the ten most attractive EU countries for machine exports from Germany
The EU countries account for 45% of all machine exports from Germany (2022). Of these, ten EU countries alone account for 84% of machine exports from Germany to the EU. A country's industrial production is one of the main determinants of machine exports and the use of machines. Therefore, this report compares the development of German machine exports to the ten EU countries with the development of industrial production in these countries. Another report examines the most important worldwide regions of the German machine export to what extent industrial production and machine exports are synchronized there.
June 9th, 2023 - The diagram for each of the ten EU countries compares changes in machinery exports from Germany with changes in industrial production in the country concerned. It compares changes, developments of the two variables in the period from 2008 to 2022, but not their absolute volumes.
Differences in the development of both variables are made directly visible as both variables refer to the pre-crisis year 2008 as a common starting point and are set to 100. This required a conversion of the official indices although without changing their context.
EU industrial production in 2022 by almost 7%, German machinery exports by almost 13% above 2008 level
In 2017, industrial production in the EU exceeded its pre-crisis level of 2008 by 1.3% for the first time. It peaked in 2022 after the 2020 crisis, 6.6% above its 2008 pre-crisis level.
In 2019, machinery exports from Germany to the EU were 14.5% above their 2008 level, the previous peak. In 2022, machinery exports from Germany to the EU exceeded the 2008 pre-crisis level by 12.9%, 14 years earlier.
As for the average, annual growth rates of these two developments for the period from 2008 to 2022:
- EU industrial production + 0.4% p.a.
- Machinery exports from Germany to the EU +0.8% p.a.
The diagram shows the comparatively deep fall in machine exports in the crisis years 2009 and 2020.
Let us now take a look at the ten most export-intensive EU countries and then treat each of them in the order presented.
The ten most important EU countries for machine exports from Germany to the EU
These ten EU countries accounted for 84% (exactly 83.7%) of machinery exports from Germany to the EU (2022). In the order of the export quotas of machines from Germany in 2022, the countries concerned are
- France (16%), Italy (11%), Poland (10.1%), The Netherlands (10,0%), (Austria (10%), Czech Republic (7%), Spain (6%), Belgium (5,4%), Hungary (5,05%) and Sweden (4%).
The UK, which left the EU, would be in third place with an export share of 10.13%, just ahead of Poland.
The ranking of the ten EU countries according to their attractiveness for machine exports from Germany
The level of machinery exports from Germany to the EU in 2022 is 12.9% compared to 2008. The ranking of the attractiveness of the ten EU countries is determined by their deviations from this average value.
According to this scale, eight countries will show above-average growth rates of machinery exports from Germany in 2022:
- Poland
- Czech Republic
- The Netherlands
- Belgium
- Austria
- Italy
- France
- Sweden.
The export quota for German machines to these eight countries totals 73% of the 84% export quota to all ten EU countries.
One EU country shows below-average growth rates for machines from Germany:
- Hungary.
The export quota for German machines to this country is 5% of the 84% export quota to all ten EU countries.
In 2022, one countries shows falling machinery exports from Germany compared to 2008:
- Spain.
The export quota for German machines to this country is 6%. The ten EU countries are treated in this order.
Poland's industrial production by 93% in 2022, machine exports by 80% above 2008 level
Poland increased its industrial production by far the most among the ten EU countries surveyed. At 93%, Poland's industrial production is well above average compared to its pre-crisis level of 2008.
Exports of machinery from Germany developed in line with this trend in Polish industrial production. At 80%, they were also well above the pre-crisis level of 2008.
This outstanding development of industrial production and German machine exports together with an export ratio of 10%, which ranks third among the ten EU countries with the highest export intensity, qualifies Poland as the most attractive export market for machines from Germany within the ten EU countries.
Czech Republic's industrial production by 24%, machine exports by 45% above pre-crisis levels
Czech Republic's industrial production developed above average and exceeded the pre-crisis level of 2008 by 24%.
Machine exports from Germany topped this development by increasing twice as fast as industrial production and surpassing the 2008 level by 45%.
The machines from Germany to the Czech Republic show an export quota of 7%. Together with the clearly above-average development of industrial production and machine exports, the Czech Republic has become the second most attractive EU market for machines from Germany after Poland.
The Netherlands' industrial production by 2% below, machine exports by 43% above pre-crisis 2008 levels
Industrial production in The Netherlands was 2% below the level of 2008 and thus showed a below-average development. In 2010 and 2013, industrial production remained only just below its pre-crisis level, but could not exceed it.
In contrast to sinking industrial production, machine exports from Germany developed significantly above average by 43%. Together with an export quota of 10% for machines from Germany, The Netherlands is the third most attractive export country among the ten EU countries.
Belgium's industrial production by 27%, machine exports by 25% above 2008 level
Belgium's industrial production, with 27% above 2008 levels, was well above the EU average in 2022.
Machinery exports from Germany have developed essentially in sync with industrial production since 2017, exceeding their 2008 level by 25%.
The clearly above-average development of industrial production with above-average machinery exports puts Belgium, with a relatively low export ratio of 5%, in fourth place in terms of attractiveness as an export market for machinery from Germany.
Austria's industrial production by 46%, machine exports by 26% above 2008 level
Austria's industrial production grew significantly faster than the EU average at 46% since 2008.
Machine exports from Germany to Austria couldn't accompanied this development in industrial production in an above-average manner. They exceeded their 2008 level by below average 13%.
With an export quota of 9.5%, Austria ranks fifth in the EU for machines from Germany. The combination of the above-average development of industrial production and machine exports, combined with the fifth highest export ratio, puts Austria in fifth place among the most attractive export markets for German machines.
Italy's industrial production by 15% below, machine exports by 23% above 2008 level
Italy is at the bottom of industrial production within the ten EU countries. In 2022 Italy's industrial production was still 15% below pre-crisis level, while industrial production in the EU as a whole was above this level by almost 7%.
Machinery exports from Germany exceeded their 2008 level by 23%. This clearly outperformed Italy's industrial production, which contracted compared with 2008.
With an 11% export share of machinery from Germany, Italy is the second most export-intensive export partner within the EU. It ranks 6th in the order of attractive countries for machinery from Germany.
French industrial production in 2022 by 10% below, machine exports by almost 19% above 2008 level
Within the EU, France is with 16% the export country number one for machines from Germany and has maintained this position unchallenged since 2008.
Industrial production in France was still 10% below its pre-crisis level in 2022, while industrial production throughout the EU could exceed its 2008 level by nearly 7%.
Machine exports from Germany to France developed above average with an increase of nearly 19%. Both developments together with the highest export ratio put France in seventhh place among the most attractive export countries within the ten EU countries.
Sweden's industrial production by 6%, German machinery exports by almost 27% above 2008 level
Sweden's industrial production in 2022 was 6% above its 2008 level, in line with the EU average.
Machinery exports from Germany to Sweden, on the other hand, have shown above-average growth of almost 27% (2022) since 2008.
With the lowest export ratio of 4% for machinery from Germany, Sweden ranks 8th among the ten EU countries as the most attractive export market.
Hungary is the country among the 10 largest export countries in the EU with below-average growth in machinery exports from Germany.
Hungary's industrial production by 38%, machine exports by 7% above 2008 level
In 2022 Hungary's industrial production was by 38% above the 2008 level and also above the EU average of almost 7%.
The exports of machines from Germany were unable to take advantage of the steep rise in Hungarian industrial production to achieve an above-average growth. Machine exports from Germany to Hungary almost halved during the global economic crisis, while industrial production fell by 18%. With the exception of 2016 and 2020, German machinery exports to Hungary rose since 2010.
It was not until 2022 that machinery exports from Germany to Hungary exceeded their pre-crisis level of 2008. This development, together with the relatively small export ratio of 5%, pushes Hungary into ninth place among the ten EU countries.
Spain's industrial production by 15%, machine exports by 10% below 2008 level
Spain's industrial production, like that of Italy, was below the pre-crisis level of 2008 by 15% and thus well below the EU average.
But unlike Italy, machinery exports from Germany to Spain are not rising in the face of declining industrial production. Rather, they are falling by 10%, albeit somewhat more weakly than industrial production at 15%.
Together with a relatively low export ratio of 6%, Spain ranks on the last position of the ten countries. This makes Spain the least attractive EU country for machinery exports from Germany in 2022 within the ten largest EU export countries.
