Economia globaleProspettive > Outlook worldwide industrial production

Worldwide industrial production from 2008 to 2018

Mostly growing, partly stagnating total tendency of worldwide industrial production

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by four reports. This report investigates the worldwide industrial production and its outlook from the outbreak of the world economic crisis to 2018. A report keeps on track of the quarterly trends. A further report deals with the structural changes in the course of the industrial production and finally a report highlights the yearly growth in the global economy.

Update February 21st, 2019 – The background for the worldwide industrial production in year 2018 provides the following facts and trends:

  • The worldwide industrial production is analyzed for groups of countries that absorb over 80% of machine exports from Germany. Those are the three groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey).

  • Our reports for these three country groups identify those trends based on periods ranging from fifteen to forty years that are determining today. So five structural changes coin the current situation of the worldwide industrial production today.

  • These five structural changes are in keywords: 1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000, 2. deeper crises, 3. longer crisis overcoming, 4. galloping national indebtedness and 5. instead of a general upward business trend as it is common after a crisis, non-uniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.

Industrial production in the industrialized countries growing 2018 but predominantly eased, in the US relatively strongly

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


Its industrial production is growing predominantly eased in 2018, growth of industrial production in the US is relatively strong.

  • In the USA industrial production is growing relatively strongly after having declined in 2015 and 2016 and slightly growth in 2017. In these four years US industrial production grew by 0.6% per year, a value that accounts to the lowest growth rates together with Japan in this country group.

  • In Germany industrial production has been growing continuously with a yearly growth rate of 1.6% from 2015 to 2018.

  • Industrial production in the European Union also continues its growth as a whole. It scarcely exceeded its pre-crisis level for the first time in 2017. In 2018 industrial production is 2 index points above pre-crisis level.

  • In Japan industrial production stagnated in 2015 and 2016, growing since then by yearly 0.6% like the US. Japan's industrial production is still below its pre-crisis level even ten years after the global economic crisis.
Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2018.

Summarized:

  • Industrial production is growing in each of the four industrialized countries. Growth is eased in germany, the EU and Japan compared to 2017 as the diagram indicates. The growth of industrial production in the US is relatively strong in 2018, however, in the context of the last four years weak.

BRIC countries with yearly growth rates from +6.2% to -2.8% in the last four years

Symbol picture BRIC countries.

The BRIC countries, which absorb 15% of machine exports from Germany, is unified growing in 2018:

 

  • India’s industrial production has been growing by 4.1% p.a. in the last four years.

  • Russia’s industrial production dropped slightly in 2015 but keeps on growing since then reaching a yearly growth rate of 1.6% p.a.

  • Brazil's industrial production has been showing an open crisis since 2014. The fall of industrial production came to an end by slight growth in 2017. In the last four years Brazil's industrial production dropped by 2.8% p.a.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2018.

Three out of four BRIC countries show stronger growth in 2018 than the industrialized countries with Brazil like Japan still significantly below their pre-crisis levels.

MIST countries with partly growing, partly stagnating tendency in 2018

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export showing a similar overall picture.

  • In Turkey industrial production is growing weaker than in previous years, in the last four years by 5% p.a.

  • In Indonesia industrial production is growing dynamically in 2018 and with 3.9% p.a. since the start of 2015.

  • South Korea's industrial production is stagnating in 2018 reaching a yearly growth rate of 1% in the last four years.
  • Mexico's industrial production is keeping on to stagnate.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2018.

So also the MIST countries are inclosed in the total tendency of the worldwide industrial production.

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