Economia globaleProspettive > Outlook worldwide industrial production

Worldwide industrial production from 2008 to 2017

Mostly growing, partly stagnating total tendency of worldwide industrial production

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by four reports. This report investigates the worldwide industrial production and its outlook from the outbreak of the world economic crisis to 2017. A report keeps on track of the quarterly trends. A further report deals with the structural changes in the course of the industrial production and finally a report highlights the crisis overcoming.

Update June 21st, 2018 – The background for the worldwide industrial production in year 2017 provides the following facts and trends:

  • The worldwide industrial production is analyzed for groups of countries that absorb over 80% of machine exports from Germany. Those are the three groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey).

  • Our reports for these three country groups identify those trends based on periods ranging from fifteen to thirty-five years that are determining today. So five structural changes coin the current situation of the worldwide industrial production today.

  • These five structural changes are in keywords: 1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000, 2. deeper crises, 3. longer crisis overcoming, 4. galloping national indebtedness and 5. instead of a general upward business trend as it is common after a crisis, non-uniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.

Growth and stagnation of industrial production in the industrialized countries still closely connected

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


Its industrial production indicates a unified growth in 2017.

  • In the USA industrial production increases slightly again after it had dropped in 2015 and 2016. However, this growth is showing  two restrictions. Its growth rate is the smallest in the related country group. And the growth cannot exceed the level of 2014. So altogether industrial production in the US has been stagnating for four years after it had grown out of the crisis trough for five years from 2010 to 2014.

  • In Germany industrial production has been growing continuously since 2014.

  • Industrial production in the European Union also continues its growth as a whole since 2015 and exceeds its pre-crisis level for the first time for ten years although marginally with 0.6 index points.

  • In Japan industrial production reaches a new high for the first time in seven years that is, however, still below its pre-crisis level.
Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2017.

Summarized, the course of industrial production in the industrialized countries is characterized by two features:

  • Unified growth in each of the four countries resp. regions in 2017.

  • However, in context since 2008 growth coexists with stagnation even in 2017. Four-year long stagnation of the US industrial production, Japan persisting below pre-crisis level, the European Union exceeding it marginally. Continuous growth since 2014 in Germany.

BRIC countries showing likewise partly growing, partly stagnating total tendency in 2017

Symbol picture BRIC countries.

The BRIC countries, which absorb 15% of machine exports from Germany, offer likewise the picture of a mixed total tendency in 2017 compounded of stagnation and growth.

 

  • India’s industrial production has been growing for five years in a row since 2013, since 2016 with increasing growth rates.

  • Russia’s industrial production dropped slightly in 2015 but keeps on growing since then.

  • Brazil's industrial production has been showing an open crisis since 2014. The fall of industrial production came to an end by slight growth in 2017.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2017.

So the BRIC countries confirm and expand the partly growing, partly stagnating total tendency of the worldwide industrial production for 2017.

MIST countries fitting into worldwide partly growing, partly stagnating total tendency

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export showing a similar overall picture.

  • In Turkey industrial production has been growing dynamically and continuously.

  • In Indonesia industrial production is growing continously.

  • Mexico's industrial production is keeping on to stagnate as it does basically industrial production of South Korea likewise.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2017.

So also the MIST countries are inclosed in the total tendency of the worldwide industrial production.

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