Economia globaleProspettive > Current trends of worldwide industrial production

Five structural changes

 

1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000

2. deeper crises

3. longer crisis overcoming

4. galloping national indebtedness

5. instead of an upward business trend non-uniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.


Worldwide industrial production in 2019 H1

Stagnation and decline prevailing in the course of worldwide industrial production in first half-year 2019

Symbolbild Weltwirtschaft

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by four reports. This report quarterly investigated the situation of the worldwide industrial production and its outlook. A report deals with structural changes in the course of the industrial production, a report highlights the time from the outbreak of the world economic crisis to 2018 and finally a report shows the structurally changed process of the crisis overcoming.

August 28th, 2019The selected countries absorb 82% of machine exports from Germany. These are the three country groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey). The trend analysis is based on the five structural changes in the course of industrial production sinde 2000. These keywords are listed on the left side.

Stagnation and decline of the industrialized countries' industrial production in first half-year 2019

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


In first half-year 2019 (blue-colored area in the diagram) industrial production only in the US increased slightly compared to 2018. The second quarter was down on the first quarter.

In the other three industrialized countries resp. regions industrial production dropped in first half-year 2019. This is true for the EU and Japan and in particular for Germany where production plunched the most in two consecutive quarters on the level of 2016.

Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2019.

So stagnation and decline coexist in the group of industrialized countries. The slight growth in the US is only 0.6 index points above the level of 2018.

Growth and setbacks of the industrial production of the BRIC countries in first half-year 2019

Symbol picture BRIC countries.

Even in the BRIC countries, which account for 15% of machine exports from Germany, growth in individual countries was offset by declines in other countries in the first half of the year.

 

  • India’s industrial production grew significantly in 2018 but numbers for 2019 are not provided yet.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2019.
  • Russia's industrial production grew strongly in 2018. The OECD doesn't provide numbers for 2019 yet.

  • Brazil's industrial production dropped again in first half-year on the level of 2017.

Also the MIST countries showing a mix of growth and setbacks in first half-year

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export are showing a similar mixted overall picture.

 

  • Indonesia's industrial production keeps on growing dynamically in first quarter and drops in second one. However, industrial production remains above the 2018-level by almost four index points.

  • Turkey's industrial production slumped by two index points in first half-year, below the level of 2017.

  • South Korea's industrial production is still almost two index points below the level of 2018.

  • Mexico's industrial production stagnated in 2017. Since then the OECD does not provide any data yet.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2019.

Forecast for 2019

The US government's aggressive trade policy under Trump could well trigger a new global economic crisis. The background of the Trump policy is a significant loss of speed especially compared to China. Two figures may illustrate this:
 


Protective tariffs, political pressure and blackmail signal weakness of the US and will not strengthen the US economy as hoped. This significantly increases the risk of war. Pentagon consultant Graham Allison tried to explain this in his book "Destined for War" published in 2017. Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned this book to American journalists.

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