Fluctuations of Germany's industrial production 2000 - 2022

Larger fluctuation range of Germany's industrial production with decreasing growth

The topic of this report, to examine the fluctuations in production in connection with the growth of production, has already been analyzed for the machinery industry and automobile industry. The results of these analyses are also confirmed in this report.

July 26, 2023 - As already analyzed for machinery industry and the automotive industry:

• After the global economic crisis of 2008/09, the fluctuation range in production is increasing while growth is decreasing.

The growth phase of German industrial production from 2016 to 2018 is measured after surpassing the pre-crisis level of 2008 (99.8 index points of the production trend in December 2015) to a new high in October 2018 (106.5 index points of the production trend). The fluctuation range of this growth phase is 25.9 index points and growth of 2.2% per year.

By contrast, the comparable earlier growth phase from 2005 to 2008 shows two percentage points higher growth of 4.2% per year. Its fluctuation range is 22% lower at 21.1 index points.

The current growth phase from the production low in February 2021 (93.1 index points of the production trend) to December 2022 has so far been 3.0% per year with a fluctuation range of 26.6 index points.

Compared with the growth phase from 2005 to 2008, this means lower growth of over one percentage point with a fluctuation range that is 26% higher.