Five trends in production and sales of German machinery industry 2008 - 2015
Production stagnating since 2011 in its fifth year, sales slightly growing since 2014
The analysis of production and sales of the German machinery industry during the eight years from 2008, the year of the breakout of the last world economic crisis, up to 2015 identifies five trends..
Production does not exceed its pre-crisis level from 2008
March 21st, 2016; first published August 27th, 2012 - During these eight years production exceeded its pre-crisis level (134.2) only once in December 2014 with 135.6 index points. One year later in December 2015 the annual high remained clearly below this value with 127.9 index points. So production does not lie in a stable manner above its pre-crisis level.
Production moving sideways since 2011 in its fifth year
Production climbed out from the crisis low until 2011. Since then it has been swinging up and down around an average line at currently 113.4 index points (2015).
The growth rate during this period is only 0.05% per year. In other words, production has been stagnating, moving sideways since then without upward or downward trend.
Sales stable above pre-crisis level
Sales could exceed other than production their pre-crisis level several times having established a stable level above pre-crisis level.
Sales stagnating two years from 2012 to 2013, then growing from 2014 to 2015
Out of the crisis low sales pass over into stagnation for two years from 2012 to 2013. During this period it slightly drops by 0.5% per year. In contrast to production, sales overcome this period of stagnation and grow by 1.2% per year during the following two years from 2014 to 2015.
In December sales mark with 155.9 index points even their peak since the outbreak of the world economic crisis.
Trend to value-added machines since 2014
Stagnating production, slightly higher sales – so machines becoming more value-added since 2014.
What is the outlook für 2016?
Sideways moving is the probable outlook for 2016 due to structural changes in export markets
The analysis of the worldwide crisis overcoming from 2008 to 2014 shows that the usual general upward business trend after a crisis failed. In its place the worldwide industrial production is showing a coexistence, a close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other. We have characterized this new phenomenon as a structural change in the process of crisis overcoming.
This structural change is coining the course of the industrial production in the industrialized countries and the BRIC countries. Industrial production in the MIST countries is in a general upward business trend.
The structural change with its close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other in the world economy is also limiting the opportunities on the world market for the German machinery industry keeping it caught in a sideways range.
Comparing export shares of the German machinery industry with the course of industrial production in those export countries that absorb 80% of the machine exports from Germany, it becomes apparent that the export shares are lagging behind industrial production in the export countries apart from the USA.
The Quest Trend Magazine has raised the question about a changing demand structure for machines as a possible reason. But the fact alone that export shares do not climb together with increasing industrial production has an limiting impact on the development of production and sales of the German machinery industry.