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Trends in production and sales of German machinery industry 2008 - 2017

German machinery industry's production stagnating, sales slightly rising, further growth limited

The analysis of production and sales of the German machinery industry during the ten years from 2008, the year of the breakout of the last world economic crisis, up to 2017 identifies three trends.

Production does not exceed stably its pre-crisis level from 2008

April 23rd, 2018; first published August 27th, 2012 - During the last ten years production exceeded its pre-crisis level three times around year's end but fell back again. So after ten years production does not lie above its pre-crisis level in a stable manner in 2017.

Production has increased by just 0.7% p.a. in six years

Production climbed out from the crisis low until the end of 2011. Since then it has been swinging up and down around the moving yearly average line standing at the end of 2017 at 103.9 index points.


In the following six years from 2012 to 2017 production grew only by 0.7% per year. Before the crisis the yearly average showed 106.6 index points, however 103.9 index points in 2017. So production stagnated, moving sideways, there is a trendless up and down without upward or downward trend.

Production machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2017.

Sales stable above pre-crisis level

Sales could exceed unlike production their pre-crisis level several times having established a stable level above pre-crisis level.

Sales of machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2017.

Sales grew by 2.2% p.a. from 2012 to 2017

Out of the crisis low sales pass over into stagnation for two years from 2012 to the end of 2013. During this period they slightly grow just by 0.6% per year. In contrast to production, sales finally overcome this period of stagnation and grow by 2.9% per year from 2014 to 2017, altogether by 2.2%.

The yearly moving average reached 106.2 index points in 2017, clearly exceeding the pre-crisis value of 97.2 index points.

Trend to value-added machines since 2014

Stagnating production, slightly higher sales – so machines becoming more value-added since 2014.

Sideways moving is the probable outlook for 2018 due to global economic conglomeration and trade restrictions

The analysis of the worldwide crisis overcoming from 2008 to 2017 shows that the usual general upward business trend after a crisis failed. In its place the worldwide industrial production is showing a coexistence, a close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other. We have characterized this new phenomenon as a structural change in the process of crisis overcoming.


This structural change is coining the course of the industrial production in the industrialized countries and the BRIC countries. Industrial production in the MIST countries is in a general upward business trend but absorb only 6% of the machine exports.

 

Against this background efforts are intensifying to intensify trade restrictions for his own benefit, currently due myinly by the US.

 

The structural change with its close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other in the world economy as well as the tendeny to trade restrictions limit also the opportunities on the world market for the German machinery industry keeping it caught in a sideways range.

Comparing export shares of the German machinery industry with the course of industrial production in those export countries that absorb 80% of the machine exports from Germany, it becomes apparent that the export shares are lagging behind industrial production in the export countries apart from the USA.


The Quest Trend Magazine has raised the question about a changing demand structure for machines as a possible reason. But the fact alone that export shares do not climb together with increasing industrial production has an limiting impact on the development of production and sales of the German machinery industry.

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