Market survey of the German machinery industry
Mechanical engineering industry expecting yearly 2.7% growth until 2016
Behind this average size a broad range of different growth expectations becomes visible. It reaches from a decline in production over stagnation up to growth expectations of more than 50%.
Update October 8th, 2014 - This result showed a survey in the German machinery industry carried out by Quest TechnoMarketing about the use of servo-drives at the machines until 2016.
An annual growth of 2.7% until 2016 means an increase of production of machines altogether by 11%.
Which different growth expectations represent the machine-builders?
Clear majority of the machine-builders supposes unchanged machine production until 2016
54% and thus the clear majority of the interviewed machine-builders expect that the annual production of machines will remain unchanged until 2016. This reluctant estimate crosses the sectors of the machinery industry.
- „If we take the same numbers of items we will comes as close as possible to the future reality.“ (Packaging machines, 30 machines)
- „We do not expect an increase.“ (Robotik+Automation, 40 machines)
- „On the one hand we wish that we will produce more machines, on the other hand it is more realistic to suggest the same number.“ (Food processing machines, 200 machines)
- „We fear not to be able to keep the current level. Today we have full order books. However, let us provide the same numbers for the future.“ (Wood processing machines, 20 machines)
- „We wish to produce more machines but it is better to take the same number of items as 2013.“ (Printing/paper handling machines, 40 machines)
- „We hope that we will keep the number of items instead of becoming fewer ones.“ (Building/glass/ceramic machines, 20 machines)
Sporadically machine-builders face decreases
Sporadically machine-builders (2%) face declining production numbers until 2016.
- „We will face rather fewer numbers of machines.“ (Machine tools, 12 machines)
- „We want to keep our production numbers, we expect, however, a decrease from 10 to 20%.“ (Textile machines, 100 machines)
How are these reluctant expectations connected with the economic situation in the machinery industry?
Production of the machinery industry in a large sideways movement since 2011
Even in the fifth year in a row the machine production has not exceeded yet the pre-crisis level of 2008. At the beginning of 2010 production climbed up from its crisis low. Since 2011 production has been going up and down.
Both tendencies - growth since the beginning of 2010, but without boom, roller coaster since 2011 are creating a mix of expectations.
Against this background the clear majority of the machine-builders is stressing the stagnation that emerged from the up and down of production since 2011.
Fewer than half of the machine-builders build on growth tendencies
44% of the machine-builder connect their expectation with temporary growth tendencies, which show up in the up and down of the machine production.
These machine-builders possibly see new prospects in certain export markets for their company strength profile. Or they hope to benefit in the future from the weaknesses of their competitors.
- „The number of machines is to be increased substantially, approximately by the double.“ (Building/glass/ceramic machines, 250 machines)
- „In fact, an annual growth rate of 20% is provided.“ (Conveyer, 100 machines)
- „We expect rising machine numbers; however, if they are also sold will be a question. Per year growth rates of 5 to 10% are provided.“ (Food processing machines, 400 machines)
- „We expect a yearly growth rate of 5%.“ (Textile machines, 300 machines)
These growth expectations occur likewise in all investigated sectors. They concern above all machine-builders that are already producing a larger number of machines striving to increase these numbers still noticeably. That leads in six of ten investigated sectors to double digit growth rates until 2016. With three of these sectors the growth expectations are even above 20%.
With these results the new Quest study „The future of the use of servo drives until 2016 in the German machinery industry“ highlights the economic background for the changes in the use of servos and the total electronic drive technology. For this purpose 28% of the machine-builders in 10 sectors with 100 and more employees were interviewed.