Trends in export of machines from Germany 2008 - 2015
The shift in the export markets as result of the world economic crisis has been turning back 2014 and 2015
As result of the world economic crisis 2008/2009 export markets of the German machinery industry had shifted away from the EU to the BRIC and MIST countries in the years up to 2013. In 2014 and 2015, however, this shift has been replaced by a shift back. Rising export shares are showing the same countries and regions as before the world economic crisis.
The shift in export countries up to 2013 means away from the EU towards the BRIC and MIST countries
Update March 21st, 2016 - The shift in the export countries for German machines over the period from 2008 to 2013 concerns four country groups covering 80% of the machine exports from Germany .
- The export shares to the countries of the European Union dramatically plunges from 52% to 44%.
- The export shares to the BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China rises from 15% to 20% (2011) and remains at 19%.
- To the USA the export share drops to 7% at first, then rises to 9% up to 2013. The export share to Japan stagnates at 1.3%.
- The export share to the dynamically developing so-called MIST countries Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey nearly double from 4% to 7%.
So on the one hand decline of the export share to the EU and temporarily to the USA and on the other hand boosting export shares to the BRIC and MIST countries - that indicates the shift in the export markets up to 2013 as result of the world economic crisis.
The shift in export quotes turned back in 2014 and 2015
- The export quota to the EU rises again from 44% to 48%.
- The export share to the BRIC countries clearly declines from 19% to 15%.
- The export share to the USA and Japan reaches its peak with 12%.
- The export quota to the smaller export countries (MIST) are stagnating with 6%.
Among the larger export countries only the export share to the US rises in 2014 and 2015
Three of the export countries outside the EU, i.e. China, the USA and Russia, are showing export shares of 5% and more. Among these countries China soars to the biggest export market for machines outside the EU as result of the world economic crisis.
2014 and 2015, however, this leading position is melting away as the export share to China dropped to 9.4% while that to the USA reached its peak with 10.5%. So both export shares differ in the same way as before the world economic crisis.
Declining export shares to smaller export countries
How may these tendencies be interpreted? (Kopie 1)
The fall of the export shares to China and their stagnation to the smaller export countries suggests a weakening position of the German machinery industry in regard to the exports to these countries.
That is why decreasing or stagnation export shares are not mainly a sign of weakening demand to machines in these countries. In fact, the most important indicaator for machine's demand, the industrial production, is performing better in these countries than the export share for German machines to these countries. So machine exports are lagging behind industrial production in these countries.
In regard to the overall context the worldwide industrial production is still determined by tendencies of stagnation. These tendencies are strengthening the drive for exports in the countries, urging the native machine-builders to fight for each order in their homeland.
The high-performance and high flexible machines from Germany match above all the sophisticated requirement of worldwide active groups with international production organisations. However, there are mainly the native machine-builders in the BRIC and MIST countries that cover the broad markets offering simpler machines. This, however, is not the main strength of the German machinery industry.