Worldwide crisis overcoming from 2008 to 2015
Status of the overcoming of the world economic crisis 2008/2009 seven years after its outbreak
How does the status of the crisis overcoming look like seven years after the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009? Can the world economic crisis be considered as overcome? Now will a general upward business trend follow? These are entitled questions only differentiated responses can be provided.
Status of the crisis overcoming at a glance
May 17th, 2016 - The following diagrams make it possible to identify the status of the crisis overcoming for each country at a glance because all indices of the industrial production show the value 100 for the beginning of the world economic crisis 2008.
And the regarded industrialized countries, i.e. the European Union, the USA, Japan, the BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, the MIST countries Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey cover 80% of the machine exports from Germany.
So which status of the crisis overcoming does these countries that are so important for the export show six years after the outbreak of the world economic crisis of 2008/2009?
Industrialized countries: The USA and Germany above, European Union and Japan below pre-crisis level in 2015
The chart below shows that industrial production in the USA and Germany is above the pre-crisis level, in the European Union as a whole and in Japan below it.
Industrial production in the industrialized countries is showing a completely non-uniform process after the crisis:
- In 2010 industrial production in all regarded industrialized countries dynamically climbs out of the crisis low of the previous year.
- Since 2010 Japan's industrial production has been stagnating remaining 2015 on 88.5% of its pre-crisis level.
- In Germany the industrial production grows scarcely over its pre-crisis level in 2011 (100.4), drops again below it in 2012 (99.8), slightly exceeds it again in 2013 (100.1) and grows 2014 and 2015. After seven years industrial production is just 2.4 index points over the level of the crisis outbreak, indicating a sluggish process of the crisis overcoming.
- In the European Union as a whole industrial production grows until 2011, drops again in 2012 and 2013 and slightly raises again in 2014 and 2015, however, remains clearly below the pre-crisis level (95.3).
- In the USA industrial production reaches in 2013, i.e. five years after the crisis outbreak, a level short above the pre-crisis level (100.7). It grows in 2014 and slightly 2015 and lies after seven years by 3.9% above pre-crisis level.
So the features of this process of the crisis overcoming are summarized:
- Although the world economic crisis hit the industrialized countries in a uniform manner, each country’s process of crisis overcoming runs in a very non-uniform manner.
- Dynamic growth out of its crisis low in Germany, the European Union as a whole and in Japan last up to two years, then growth stops, and industrial production drops even again. Whereupon phases follow, in which weak growth and slight decreases of industrial production alternate.
- Only in the USA the process of the crisis overcoming indicates a continuous growth that however ends up in stagnation in 2015.
- Also seven years after the crisis outbreak the European Union as a whole and Japan are still below the pre-crisis level.
Fifth structural change in the course of industrial production
From these features we derive a further, i.e. the fifth structural change in the course of industrial production of the industrialized countries. This structural change is:
- In place of a general upward business trend for the overcoming of an economic crisis a non-uniform process of the crisis overcoming has emerged during which growth, stagnation and decreases of the industrial production co-exist producing a stagnant total tendency by interaction with industrial production swinging up and down around this level for some time and in different countries.
The long duration of the world economic crisis as well as its depth are already considered and acknowledged by the three structural changes.
Fifth structural change also affects the BRIC countries
The world economic crisis does not hit the BRIC countries in a uniform manner. In fact, industrial production in Brazil and Russia decreases, in India stagnates while in China it further clearly grows in the year 2009 although with slight weakened growth rate.
But already one year after the crisis low in 2010, industrial production in Brazil and India climbs over its pre-crisis level, Russia follows one year later, and China’s growth intensifies.
However, this dynamic growth out of its crisis low evaporates in Brazil, India and Russia after one to two years. Industrial production in India and Russia proceeds only a little up to 2014, even drops in 2015. In Brazil industrial production stagnates after its dynamic growth stage and again declines since 2014 to lastly 91.1% of its pre-crisis level.
In 2015 China achieves a duplication of its industrial production in the comparison to its pre-crisis level.
So also the BRIC countries having been unified growth-intensive before the world economic crisis 2008/2009 indicate the close entwinement or coexistence of growth, stagnation and decrease of industrial production in the stage of the crisis overcoming.
MIST countries in general upward business trend after economic crisis
Also the MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey) are not hit by the world economic crisis in a uniform manner.
In 2009 industrial production declines in Turkey and Mexico, stagnates in South Korea and continues to grow in Indonesia.
But already one to two years later industrial production is again over its pre-crisis level. This dynamic growth out of the crisis low persists three years until 2012 in all MIST countries. Then the further development becomes different.
In Indonesia and Turkey industrial production continues to dynamically grow by 2015. In South Korea growth of industrial production migrates since 2014 into stagnation. In Mexico industrial production slightly declines in 2013 and again grows somewhat in 2014 and 2015.
So the process of the crisis overcoming in the MIST countries indicates a different process than in the industrialized countries and the BRIC countries. It outweighs the general upward business trend during the overcoming of an economic because the industrial production’s growth is determining in these countries after the world economic crisis.
The MIST countries have stagnation and decrease like in Mexico and South Korea in common with the industrialized and BRIC countries during the process of the crisis overcoming, however, their growth distinguish them from the close entwinement of growth, stagnation and decrease, predominating there.
So the fifth structural change does play only a minor role for the MIST countries until 2015.